Rochester Hills, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

476
FXUS63 KDTX 261025
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
625 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and taper off in
the evening hours. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms along and
south of the I-94 corridor, with all hazards (wind, hail, and
tornadoes) possible.

- Sharply colder air arrives tonight and Friday, followed by a
steady warming trend through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Weak surface low pressure is forecast to lift along a southward
advancing cold front across the southern portions of metro Detroit
and Toledo late this afternoon and evening. Moisture advection and
elevated instability will expand across southern Michigan this
afternoon as this system approaches. This will result in an
expanding region of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Rapid stratus
development is also forecast this afternoon with the moisture
advection. As the cold front advances south, shallow post frontal
cold air and residual low level moisture will lead to an expanding
region of IFR based status, the probabilities increasing from late
this afternoon into the evening.

DTW Convection....Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the
airspace between 17Z and 21Z. There are indications in latest model
solutions that the thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this
afternoon/evening and organize into a linear fashion across the
southern portions of the airspace (across the Toledo region) between
21Z and 00Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for cigs below 5000 ft this afternoon and tonight.

* Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

Yesterday`s late-day warm advection surge allowed temperatures to
reach into the 60-65 degree range late in the day for areas along and
west of U.S. 23, as the 00Z DTX sounding revealed a 925-mb
temperature of 11C. Although it remains mild this morning
(40s/50s), the air mass remains dry and stable, as surface dew points
are mostly in the 30s. The primary focus of this forecast cycle
remains the potential for severe weather today and the subsequent
cold shot behind the frontal boundary tonight/Friday.

Model Analysis (00Z NAM/HRRR/Regional GEM): The 00Z suite shows high
confidence in the timing of the pre-frontal warm sector expansion.
925 mb temperatures are progged to continue to increase to +12C to
+14C by 18Z over southern areas. The 00Z NAM continues to be the
most aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based
instability, bringing a narrow tongue of 800-1200 J/kg SBCAPE into
the I-94 corridor by 21Z. Caveat: The 00Z NAM is very sensitive to
dew point recovery. If 60F dew points fail to clear the Ohio
border, the severe threat will remain largely elevated, favoring hail
over wind, as elevated MUCAPEs look to exceed 1000 J/kg as well. At
the present time, one needs to look upstream all the way back to
Missouri to find any dew points close to 60F.

The HRRR (00Z) is slightly more tempered with instability due to
concerns over residual cloud debris from morning isentropic lift but
compensates with more robust convective organization along the
actual cold front; however, this occurs mostly south of the state
border. The Regional GEM (00Z) provides a middle-ground solution,
highlighting a potent 850-mb jet of 45-50 knots. This creates a high-
shear/low-CAPE (HSLC) environment where 0-6km bulk shear values
exceed 50 knots. Straight-line hodographs suggest a primary damaging
wind threat, though low-level curvature in close proximity to the
surface low center tracking along or near the Michigan border could
support isolated tornadoes if cells can remain discrete before
transitioning to a linear mode.

SPC Day 1 continues to highlight areas along and south of I-94 in
the Slight Risk. Hazards: Damaging winds (65+ mph), large hail
(2"+), and an isolated strong tornado threat remains, with the most
likely severe window between 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Severe chances
quickly taper off north of I-94, but there could be a marginal
severe threat as far north of M-59, but most likely just hail with
steep mid level lapse rates.

A significant surface temperature drop is expected in the evening
hours from north to south, with brisk northerly winds kicking in.
Fortunately, forecast soundings show a deep dry slot immediately
following the front, which should curtail post-frontal precipitation
before a changeover to snow occurs.

On Friday, expect a blustery, raw day. Highs will struggle to reach
40F. Low-level lapse rates will be steep under the cold core, which
could result in "rogue" cellular flurries or graupel showers,
especially in the Thumb region with fetch off Lake Huron. However, it
appears inversion heights will be too low and the mid-level dry slot
will be too much to overcome; consequently, the forecast will remain
dry for now.

The ECMWF ensemble remains in good agreement regarding the magnitude
of the cold air mass, but the heart of the cold air does not arrive
until Friday night when 850-mb temps bottom out around -13C or so,
which is roughly two standard deviations below the climatological
mean for late March. NBM temperatures appear to be too warm for
Friday night, and would expect most locations to dip into the teens.

Surface high pressure slides to the south on Saturday, allowing for
a quick return to southwesterly flow. However, the ECMWF ensemble
members still only indicating highs in the lower 40s coming off the
cold start.

The longwave pattern shifts toward a more zonal to even slightly
ridged configuration by early next week. Global ensemble (GEFS/EPS)
clusters and Canadian GDPS suggest a significant warm-up by Tuesday,
with another potential deep trough developing over the Western US.
This setup often signals a return to active, springlike weather for
the Great Lakes by the middle of next week.

MARINE...

High pressure influence wanes today as a fast moving upper level
wave provides a much stronger wind field aloft, and eventually drags
a low pressure system through the Great Lakes. The system will also
force a strong cold front through the region with thunderstorms
developing along the frontal slope. Locally higher winds/waves are
possible in some storms, and a few could intensify to meet
thresholds for Marine Weather Statements and/or Special Marine
Warnings. All convective hazards are possible in isolated fashion
(i.e. +34 knot gusts, +0.75 inch hail, waterspouts), particularly
during the evening hours for the southern waterways (Lake St. Clair
and western Erie). Post-frontal cooling will be stark, but a
decrease in low-level northerly flow should limit nocturnal mixed-
layer gustiness to below 30 knots. Modest on-shore post-frontal
gradient winds suggest high confidence in Small Craft Advisory level
waves, which remains in effect.

HYDROLOGY...

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon ahead of a cold front sweeping through Lower Michigan.
Consensus model guidance QPF totals generally between 0.25 and 0.75
inches through Thursday evening, with the higher totals near the
southern Michigan border.

While the broader river flood potential remains low due to
relatively high infiltration capacity from a recent dry spell and
current river levels sitting at or below normal for late March,
localized issues cannot be ruled out. The primary concern is for
urban areas and small streams south of the M-59 corridor, where high-
intensity rainfall rates within embedded thunderstorms could lead to
localized ponding or rapid rises. Flash flood guidance (FFG) remains
high (6-hour FFG mainly above 2.0 inches), and current rainfall
projections are well below these thresholds. No significant
hydrologic impacts are expected at the main stem river forecast
points at this time.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for
     LHZ421-441>443.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.